I don’t know how much air power alone can contain the Taliban in Afganistan. I do think that it is important to remember that the reason we invaded Afganistan in the first place wasn’t because we were opposed to the Taliban regime, but because the Taliban were giving sanctuary to Osama bin Ladin and Al Qaeda leaders.
With that in mind I think it is clear that while our military presence in Afganistan has limited Al Quaeda’s ability to conduct terrorist attacks, it still exists as an organization and has inspired other Islamic terrorists to commit terrorist attacks in London and Madrid.
However, even if we were to remove the Al Qaeda pressence from Afganistan, I think it would be very likely that the leadership would just move to another country that was unstable or sympathetic to its goals. Al Quaeda already has done this several times. In 1994 Osama bin Laden’s Saudi citizenship was revoked and he went into exile in Sudan. In 1996 when Sudan’s government made it clear that Al Qeada was not welcome they moved to Afganistan.
Even if the United States dismantled Al Quaeda, the violent ideology which it uses would still exist. Tom Ridge talked about this on the Daily Show on Thursday. That while it is possible to invade countries and topple dictators, destroying an idea is impossible. Given this, as much of an effort should go into foreign aid and diplomacy that can help eradicate the root causes of terrorism.